TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Q2 GDP contraction will be revised down to an
annualized 2.0% drop from an initial 1.3% fall, reflecting an expected
downward revision to business investment, according to the median
forecast of economists surveyed by Market News International.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) gross
domestic product data for April-June at 0850 JST on Friday, Sept. 9
(2350 GMT on Thursday).
Preliminary GDP data released last month showed that Japan’s
economy contracted a real 0.3% q/q in Q2 (an annualized -1.3%), the
third consecutive quarterly q/q drop.
The March 11 earthquake disaster caused supply chain breakdowns
that curtailed automobile and electronics output and dampened business
and consumer sentiment.
According to economists polled, a downward revision to a small gain
in capital investment seen in the initial reading would more than offset
an upward revision to a private-sector inventory buildup.
Economists are basing their forecasts on the results of a quarterly
business survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Friday.
Capex will be revised down to -1.7% q/q from a preliminary +0.2%,
while the positive contribution of private-sector inventories to GDP
will be revised up to +0.4 percentage point from +0.2 point, according
to their median forecasts.
The MOF survey showed non-financial firm capex including software
fell 7.8% in the three months to June 30 from a year earlier, marking
the first drop in four quarters and posting the largest drop since
-11.5% in Q1 2010.
MNI plans to release in coming days the results of a full survey of
economists forecasting revised Q2 GDP.
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **