UK DATA: Q2 Preliminiary GDP -0.7% q/q; -0.8% y/y
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Q2 UK economic output plummeted in Q2 by far more than the median
forecast, hit by the impact of the Jubilee and poor weather. While the
headline fall has been exagerrated by the impact of one-off factors, and
we could see some recovery in Q3, underlying growth is likely to be
close to flat or declining. The poor outturn makes it more likely that
over 2012 as a whole we’ll see little or no growth in the UK economy.
The 0.7% q/q fall was the largest quarterly decline since Q1 2009.
National Statistics made clear that there were two special events in Q2
which had depressed growth, although were unable to quantify their
impact. Services output fell 0.1% on the quarter, construction output
plunged 5.2% on the quarter and industrial production was down 1.3% on
the quarter.