Terrible Chinese trade numbers

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  • Exports +2.9% y/y vs +9.0% exp
  • Imports flat vs +2.0% exp
  • Trade surplus $19.63B vs $26.85 exp

Massive misses on exports and imports. On exports, the lowest estimate on Bloomberg was +6.0%. AUD/USD quickly down to 1.0468.

There has been some volatility in recent Chinese trade data but it’s difficult to imagine any justification for zero import growth compared to last year.

It is difficult to reconcile these numbers with the strong industrial production numbers on the weekend, unless you believe in manipulation. Trade data is almost impossible to manipulate, unlike others.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLiveâ„¢. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.


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Adam Button


  1. china the ultimate manipulators.

  2. I find it surprising that a country controlled by central planning that some believe that anything coming from the country is not filtered or controlled somehow. Managed would be a kinder view.

    While the reported data itself is not manged, the inputs commonly are…

  3. “managed” “controlled” “manipulated” it’s all the same. false data and they it so obvious.

  4. The question is WHY is it being manipulated .
    What is achieved by the manipulation ?

  5. You keep investment coming in and calm unrest.


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