I believe that 2013 will prove to be the last year of the Australian dollar bull market. The only question is whether there will be one final burst of strength before a slide below parity and beyond.
A look at the AUD/USD monthly chart shows that the pair has gone limp — straight sideways with lowered volatility.
I’m still in the camp looking for one final burst but this chart is making me think twice:
Before a trend reversal, it’s common to see a period of inactivity. The CFTC numbers also show that the market is extremely long AUD so a shuffle to the exits could quickly turn into a stampede.
