The slow exit from the aussie dollar rolls on as the levels continue to be broken.
The latest was the 2008 trend line at 0.9646 and the May 2012 low at 0.9583 which has now become resistance for the bounce from 0.9525.
If we manage a close below these levels then we could see some acceleration to the downside.
The last lines in the sand are the 55 wma at 0.9425 and the Oct 2011 low at 0.9388. We have a big old red candle on the monthly that doesn’t look pretty.
If that also closes out the month beneath 0.9600 then it’s going to increase the downside pressure.
I never managed to get my short in as we didn’t get up to 0.9800. I’ve still got my AUD/NZD short from 1.1977, which I’m running and will now bring my AUD/USD short target down to the 0.9700 level.
We’ve come a very long way but the safe haven trades still have a huge amount of unwinding to do. As you can see from the first chart we’ve not even come close to the 38.2 fib level of the move up from 2008. Of course we will get bounces but the overall picture is that the unwinding is likely to continue.
