UK Q2 GDP – how good is good ?

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Ok, so we all know by now that the market is expecting a good provisional figure today at 08.30 GMT as business activity rebounds after a weather affected Q1.

The big question though is how good is good and how much has been factored in?

The BOE’s own forecast was +0.5% vs +0.3% prev but we’ve had some analysts this week looking for +0.7-+0.8%

Cable has strong sell interest between 1.5390-1.5410 so we can expect that area to be tested from current levels ( 1.5355) if we get a number at the top end of the range.

Buy rumour/sell fact? Yep, I think so but if 1.5420-50 breaks then we may be in a period of further consolidation until we get a second reading.

For another take on the current scenario here’s a post I put up yesterday.



Author: Mike Paterson

Mike Paterson has more than 30 years of experience trading FX including key market-making roles as a senior spot trader with UBS and Credit Suisse. He was also head of FX at the State Bank of Victoria in London. With sizeable daily trading volumes Mike carved out a career combining professional integrity with a cynical grasp of seizing market opportunity. Since leaving the City, Mike has been working as an independent consultant and trading for himself, along with presenting seminars and writing for a number of publications. Mike now lives in Kent but remains a passionate sponsor of Southend United FC.


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Cable|Market Rumors|Mkt Talk|UK economy

Mike Paterson


  1. Pound has its bull target at 5450’s.. Its a profit taking area.

  2. Excellent call Mike. just made some good money buying the rumour and selling the fact. Thank you

  3. glad it helped Ricardo.. bit of a no brainer really

  4. Great post patto. Hit the nail on the head

  5. thanks Tom.. Ryan was on the money too

  6. Hi Mike and Ryan,

    Honesty speaking, both are real helpful even though some questions are not answer, is either not posted or too many comments…

  7. Technically the 61.8%Fibo on the Daily is key. Excellent place to limit risk and short the market. Its worked for the last 4 days…. Cable has be the little train that could’t….

  8. explain in more detail please Tiong Hua

  9. Great post Ryan….get your blackberry working? :)

  10. that was actually my post Tom but hey who’s counting ? lol

  11. Lol….auusie cricket team are wishing they could use that line
    2-0… Who’s counting?

  12. lol Tom.. Warner must come back though after his 194 knock eh?

  13. Boof would be crazy not to. Bring some resistance to the english bowlers and establish a foundation. Otherwise…….whitewash

  14. will be good for a fight in the bar after anyway !

  15. Hahaha….might be the only chance to get one up


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