Good morning everyone. Back from a week long`staycation` on the east coast of England. I was accompanied by my wife, my three daughters (collectively known – for fans of Star Trek – as The Borg..), and their three long suffering partners (Klingons)… but at least they play golf !
This time of year is commonly known as `the silly season` in the UK, as nothing much tends to come out of government, lots of people are away, and the news media tends to get a bit desperate for substantive content. So it seems that when Mr Governor spoke last week, there was no shortage of comment. From my angle, he did nothing unexpected, and as suggested, his `forward guidance` told us little new and was subject to several caveats. The link to unemployment was predictable – if unoriginal, but the `joker in the pack`ie. inflation was left as a wild card. Put bluntly, we now have a potentially dangerous financial structure which encourages borrowing, and discourages saving. The rush to create growth has thrown to one side any inflation concerns – for now. BUT there will be an election in 2015 – at the latest. Should the forward guidance prove accurate, we will enter the build up to that election with continued low interest rates, rising house prices and a positive growth outlook – fertile ground for a Conservative Party overall majority. HOWEVER, should inflation or employment become at odds with the strategy, Mr Carney may be under a lot of pressure to prove his neutrality by tightening in the run up to that election – and as I know, what is least convenient is likely to happen….
