Australia Q2 GDP is the big focus today
- For the q/q change, expected is +0.5%, prior was +0.6%
- For the y/y, expected is +2.4%, prior was 2.5%
Historical results – slowing Australian GDP:
I’ve seen some central forecasts at 0.6%, but Bloomberg’s survey has the median at 0.5%:
Given the moving of the RBA yesterday from an easing bias to a more neutral bias, and assuming they had seen an advance copy of the GDP, then perhaps the likelihood is for a 0.5 – 0.6% result or a surprise on the upside. To be honest, though, and with the caveat that consumption might come in stronger, I think a downside surprise is more likely.
AUDUSD (orderboard here) is near resistance, the GDP announcement should provide the catalyst for the next move.
AUD/JPY buying has been seen this morning.
EUR/AUD sellers overnight from the US.
Comments welcome, as always
