That estimate is in line with about 0.1 pp each week, which is what economists were saying at the outset. My guess is that the effect could be smaller, furloughed workers will be paid and the three-week vacation they got was probably a chance to do some shopping and spending.

More results from the Reuters poll:

  • Q3 GDP seen at 1.9% (annualized) vs 2.0% prior
  • Q4 GDP seen at 2.3% vs 2.5% prior
  • Majority of economists expect taper to begin in Q1
  • Non-farm payroll growth seen averaging 151K in Q3 and 175K in Q4

For European and the UK

  • Eurozone economy has a 20% chance of relapsing into recession next year
  • 27 of 31 economists say UK recovery is sustainable
  • Majority of economists say UK unemployment will reach 7% long before BOE expects