That was unexpected.
The Chicago PMI roared higher as new orders hit 74.3 from 58.9 in a Halloween surprise. It’s the highest since 2004. The US dollar is catching a sugar rush from the data as economists scramble to try and figure out what would have caused such a surge in an month where the government shut down.
Chicago PMI
MNI notes two reasons for the surge in orders:
- Half the gains stemmed from seasonal adjustments
- October is the time when pre-Chinese New Year orders hit
There is reason for mild optimism on manufacturing but not this much optimism.
