The textbook head and shoulders pattern on NZD/USD will be a main focus in the week ahead.

NZDUSD technical analysis Nov 8

NZDUSD head and shoulders

When the technical patterns get as perfect as this chart, I get nervous. Of course, nothing is settled until the neck (just below 0.8200) breaks.

Fundamentally, I struggle to see what could cause a big decline on the New Zealand dollar side of the equation. However, talk of US tapering could cause a round of risk aversion and that would be the perfect catalyst for a move toward 0.7800.