Time to bang the inflation drum again ahead of the euro zone flash CPI number tomorrow.
Mike has already covered some earlier but I’m going to list what else has been out today.
- Spain +0.2% vs -0.1% prior y/y (HICP 0.3% vs 0.1% exp y/y)
- Belgium 0.81% vs 0.63% prior y/y, 0.7% vs -0.7% prio m/m
German regions
- Saxony 1.4% vs 1.1% prior y/y, +0.3% vs -0.3% prior m/m
- Brandenburg 1.3% vs 1.2% prior y/y, +0.2% vs -0.2% prior m/m
- Hesse 1.1% vs 0.9% prior y/y, +0.2% vs -0.2% prior m/m
- Bavaria 1.0% unch y/y, +0.1% vs -0.4% prior m/m
- North Rhine 1.6% vs 1.4% prior y/y, +0.3% vs -0.1% prior m/m
The main German CPI number is out at 13.00 gmt, not 13.30 as I originally had it.
The long and short, as Mike pointed out is that the Euro is up on the higher inflation numbers as the market sees that translating into the data tomorrow. It may well have a point as inflation has fallen a long way over the last few months, it stands to reason that the falls might ease, certainly energy costs have risen which could turn the numbers around. I’ll be paying particular attention to the core numbers tomorrow as that’s is where the real problem lies. A reversal there is likely to see the euro pop higher as further ECB policy changes will be pushed back.
Roll on 10am Friday
