I want to thank the staff at ForexLive for the opportunity to fill in on the weekends (not sure they all got a vote). I hope to provide some useful technical analysis and thoughts on the week while the market catches its breath. Or holds its breath waiting for the next announcement. I think of myself as the bologna in a deli sandwich, technically still a meat but of questionable origin. We get such great coverage here of news events and market orders that adding weekly pivot points should enhance the value of the order boards.
A little background, I have traded forex for about 9 years. I am pretty sure I have managed to lose money every way possible. I have a closet full of expert advisers, and systems that worked like a charm for three months at most. To be successful requires time and patience. There is no way around that. I hope I can save some of you some time and money. No guarantees, but I will do my best.
So on to my first post…..
How to enter a trend
Just seeing a trend is one thing, knowing when to enter is another. Nothing worse than buying at the high or selling at the low. December is always a month of huge trend trading. But the JPY and AUD weakness have really been prevalent. Even long time traders sometimes need to step back and look at the simple things that make a trade worthwhile. Given that the never ending taper is on the news the USD/JPY is being used for the example. This is a chart done with simple free indicators. The red line at the bottom is 100 simple moving average, on close, with a 4hr chart. It’s only purpose is trend direction. It might seem silly, but at times you can get caught up in price action moves that really haven’t changed the trend. December 5 to 6 gave the perfect entry into joining the trend even though it is probably getting tired by this point. The clear break of support line 1 is the signal to hop in. One thing I have learned through the years, never assume a trend is over until it is. In a trending environment fundamentals tend to get left by the roadside. A painful lesson for sure.
USD/JPY
