Forex futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the close on Tuesday, Jan 14, 2014:

  • EUR net long 7K vs long 14K prior
  • JPY net short 120K vs short 129K prior
  • GBP net long 11K vs long 18K prior
  • AUD net short 51K vs short 57K prior
  • CAD net short 67K vs short 61K prior
  • CHF net short 3K vs long 5K prior
  • Gold net long 44K vs long 39K prior

My initial reaction is that there is still plenty of room for bets against the Australian dollar. The problem is that people hate to hold those positions because of the negative carry.