Research note from HSBC economists after the NAB business conditions and confidence data today
The gist of it is:
- They say the business conditions indicator is positively correlated with domestic demand
- Conclude that the rise in business conditions may indicate that domestic demand started picking up at the end of 2013
- Says they see signs of rebalancing occurring in the Australian economy
- Yes, employment data is weak, but because employment lags the economy, employment growth could pick up in early 2014
- Continue to expect RBA’s easing phase is over