The trouble in the Ukraine could be a buying opportunity for EUR/USD.
March is the second-best month for euro longs, averaging a 1.06% gain over the past 10 years including 6 of the past 8 years. The downside in March 2013 the euro fell 1.8%.
Fundamentally, it’s not difficult to envision a calmer situation in the Ukraine and a less-dovish ECB as the drivers. It’s a tough start today with the euro down 0.5% but the seasonal strength extends through April so the key could be timing (isn’t it always).
