The RBNZ monetary policy meeting announcement is coming out at 4 pm ET, which is Thursday morning New Zealand time. NZD/USD is up to 0.8488 after falling as low as 0.8439 at the start of US trading.
- The RBNZ monetary policy meeting is tomorrow, a rate hike is widely expected and telegraphed.
- OIS pricing has it currently at a 134% probability of a 25 basis point hike (what this means is that a 25 basis point is 100% expected, while a 50 basis point hike is priced at a 34% probability). Markets are often wrong about the probability of a rate hike. But not this wrong.
- No rate hike from the RBNZ on Thursday would be a shock result
- Every economists surveyed by Bloomberg (all 15 of ‘em) forecast a 25 basis point hike
- The current cash rate is 2.50%
- The announcement is due at 4pm New York time on Wednesday (i.e 2000GMT).
- Governor Wheeler has a press conference scheduled 5 minutes later, beginning at 2005GMT.
- Wheeler is likely to try to jawbone the NZD lower (he will not talk it up).
The kiwi is near the highest levels since October. And not far off from the 0.8843 record high set in 2011.
NZDUSD daily
