One thing I’m picking up while reading the minutes is that they lead with the bad news and follow up with the good news.
Bad cop
The information reviewed for the April 29-30 meeting indicated that growth in economic activity paused in the first quarter as a whole
Good cop
but that activity stepped up late in the quarter
And so it goes on.
The unemployment rate stayed at 6.7 percent in March,but both the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio increased slightly.
The production of motor vehicles and parts declined in March,but factory output outside of the motor vehicle sector expanded.
Anyway, despite Yellen naming housing as a potential weakening spot in the economy there was little real mention. Private investment was down in Q1 but the capex factor in durable goods rose in Feb and March (non defence cap goods ex air), forward looking indicators suggest a pick up later.
They note that the cold weather drew down energy supplies more than normal and pushed energy prices up. We could have been seeing some of this in the last inflation figures so worth bearing in mind for the next set if we see a dip.
Growth is still expected to run at a faster pace than last year
All mostly par for the course and there’s no real change in perspective. The future seems written in stone with the end of QE and they are working on their exit strategy. Unless we get any marked changes in the dat it going to be more of the same come June’s FOMC.
