Once again we approach the ECB meeting with all the hype and bluster not to mention a guessing game based on anything from charts, past performance, hidden messages in the rhetoric and now even astrology and tide timetables if some of the comments here are anything to go by.

But what we don’t have is fact so any view can only be conjecture, so for what it’s worth mine is that they will cut refi and depo rates making depo negative, leave any QE measures and LTRO on hold but highlight that they are still in the mix. As for any liquidity injection such as the UK’s FLS I just hope it’s accompanied with tighter conditions than we have in ours which has largely seen banks use the money to look after No. 1 first.

The market is short of euros and I share the increasing view that the impact might well be limited today at least ahead of the US NFPs tomorrow. Yes we’ll see volatility on the rate announcement and then the presser as always but, while the event might indeed be a water-shed moment for markets, recent forex price action suggests that the extent of moves lower or higher will be relatively contained.

I say relatively because after such tight trading ranges lately anything bigger than 100 pips in one direction would be considered substantial and therefore will in itself bring buyers on the dip and sellers on the rally given that medium/longer-term traders have been waiting for breakouts for so long.

A rapid fall in EURUSD might yet produce a decent dip in EURCHF but not enough to trouble the SNB if we don’t get below say, 1.2075, but we know they stand poised to use fx intervention, the only tool at their disposal. We know that EURGBP has a large impact on GBPUSD as indeed EURJPY does on USDJPY and EURAUD on AUDUSD and so on, so don’t get blinkered and make sure you keep your eyes wide open across the board.

So, as usual, I will be square into the announcements and looking at various levels either side of the move. immediate key ones for me being:

EURUSD 1.3550 ( barrier option defence with stops below), 1.3500, 1.3450 and 1.3650 and 1.3700, 1.3750

EURGBP 0.8100, 0.8085, 0.8050 and 0.8150-60 0.8185 0.8200-10

GBPUSD 1.6700, 1.6685 1.6650 and 1.6800-10, 1.6850, 1.6875

EURCHF 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2075 and 1.2230 1.2250 1.2280

USDCHF 0.8930-40, 0.8900 0.8885, 0.8850 and 0.9000, 0.9040-50 0.9080, 0.9100

EURJPY 139.00, 138.50 and 140.00, 104.50

USDJPY 102.25, 102.00 101.75, 101.50 and 103.00 103.25 103.50

I say “immediate” but half of these may well be just wish-list extremes but hey, we live in hope that the recent malaise may get a decent kicking from the Draghster, regardless of what he produces out the hat.

As always, trade what’s in front of you, don’t think too hard, and don’t get greedy, and good luck out there.