At the bottom of the hour we have the MPC minutes from the 5th June monetary policy meeting.
MPC decisions and minutes have been a non-event for many months now but with Mark Carney’s comments that rate hikes might come sooner than people expect he may have been front running s change in direction from one or more of the MPC members.
They’ve all been flying in the same direction and voting 9-0 to keep the status quo of 0.50% interest rate and £375bn QE.
Any change in voting patterns will likely see cable pop but it also depends on how many turn hawkish. The members have all been singing off the same hymn sheet and that in itself is quite unusual. MPC members have never been shy of showing their hand at meetings if they feel strongly enough about their views, even if it goes against the grain.
To try and quantify it into any moves in the pound, I think one member voting for hikes will have a muted effect. Two may see us take 1.70 but probably with limited follow through. Any more than two and we’ll be off to the races. If it remains 9-0 then some in the market may show their disappointment and the pound could come off.
