Via MNI, Citi economists Josh Williamson and Paul Brennan:

  • Raised their forecast for 2014 GDP to 3.5% yearly average growth versus 3.2% forecast earlier
  • For 2015 to 2.9% (2.7% previous)
  • Expect the RBNZ to hike on July 24 (previously thought next would be in September)
  • Then a pause
  • “With economic growth now forecast to be further above the potential rate over the course of this year and the RBNZ providing no change to the hawkish policy guidance that was used to usher in successive rate increases to date, the path of least resistance is to argue for further policy consistency before a pause in September”

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Meanwhile the NZD conitnues to dribble lower, approaching 0.8700 but not there yet