Bloomberg have this article on Glenn Stevens, the RBA, interest rates and the AUD.
It has some comments worth considering from a few analysts, none of whom think the RBA is going to cut rates again.
Kieran Davies, chief economist at Barclays in Sydney:
- “Talking down the currency is not that effective when you haven’t got anything to threaten the market with”
- “I took the comments as trying to reinforce his talking down of the currency”
Sean Keane, an Auckland-based analyst at Triple T Consulting and the former head of Asia-Pacific rates trading at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote in a July 3 note:
- “It seems clear that the RBA Governor doesn’t want to ease rates again”
- Efforts to spur market expectations for lower rates “is a much simpler and less difficult solution”
Jarrod Kerr, a Sydney-based director of interest-rate strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia:
- “A lot would need to go wrong in order for the RBA to step in again, and stimulate even further”
- “It is not a zero percent chance, but I don’t think it is a 60 percent chance either”
