By and large Q1 earnings containing the ‘weather’ effect weren’t as bad as some people forecast. That should make Q2/H2 numbers super stellar shouldn’t it?
Alcoa kick of the big boys tomorrow and if they, and the other major companies reporting, paint a good picture for earnings then we could be seeing 2000 in the S&P.
What we’ll want to see in the reports is a pick up in investment. There were still some companies that were cost cutting, but their number fell and so after streamlining the last couple of years firms will want to look how to increase business. Keep an eye out for any news on wage costs rising as this will add to the inflation picture.
A bumper earnings quarter may also get the market thinking that the US economy is finally entering a real “lift off” moment and that could get the hawks stretching their wings.
Sentiment is as much a part of trading as technicals and fundamentals and if others join the Goldies call then we could start to see the dollar rise substantially. The only thing with the Goldman’s call is that they are perma dollar bulls so this is just another piece of the puzzle they’ve cut themselves to fit their Jigsaw.
The S&P chart is still a wonder to behold and it must be driving the top pickers barmy.
S&P monthly 07 07 2014
It’s got to drop at some point right?
