Eurozone, German & Italian unemployment and Challenger layoffs have flowed under the bridge so far today and up next is US initial jobless claims followed by US Q2 employment costs. It all comes before the big US jobs report tomorrow.
Initial jobless claims fell bellow the 300k mark last week to 284k and the market is looking for a 301k number this week. The four week average paints a more sustained picture and could drop below last week’s 302k to break the 300k number.
Employment costs will add to the inflation data with costs expected to rise 0.5% from 0.3% prior. A much larger than expected number might give the rate rise crew some more ammo.
Sandwiched in between all that is the monthly Canadian GDP data from some lagging point this year. Actually it’s from May and Moose herders want to see a rise of 0.3% from 0.1% in April. Man, they’re so behind. Have we had their Q1 GDP data yet?
That’s all coming up halfway past the next hour (about 30 mins in English) and last on the list for the main data is the Chicago business barometer PMI at 14.45 gmt +1. We’re looking for an uptick to 63.0 from 62.6 prior.
The dollar is holding the gains from yesterday which will be encouraging the bulls. With the jobs market being less of a worry now upside surprises in NFP may have limited effect in the buck (unless it’s a really big number). The main risk for longs will be a poor number but there’s been enough in the recent jobs indicators to suggest that’s not going to happen. The NFP though does like to catch us with our pants down once in a while which is why it’s such a great event.
So a last round of numbers before we head on to tomorrows (hopefully) big one.
