Just a quick look at the upcoming employment report for July coming up at 0130GMT (June’s is here)
- Employment Change July: expected +13.2K, prior +15.9K
- Unemployment Rate July: expected 6.0%, prior 6.0%
- Full Time Employment Change July, prior was -3.8K
- Part Time Employment Change July, prior was +19.7K
- Participation Rate July, expected is 64.7%, prior was 64.7%
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We just had the RBA meeting on Tuesday:
And, we get their “Statement on Monetary Policy” on Friday: RBA statement coming up on Friday – Nomura expectation
It certainly appears that interest rates are stuck on hold for a good few months still to come. the RBA will be monitoring ongoing economic data releases, particularly the monthly employment data (we get July’s at 0130GMT today), capex data (coming up at the end of this month), & GDP data in early September.
Today’s results won’t swing the RBA definitively one way or the other, but will be an input into the next board decision (though, like I said, they are on hold).
For reactions for the AUD today – its pretty vanilla, a better result will add to chatter of the next move being a rate hike and be net supportive of the AUD while a poor result will reignite talk of a further a interest rate cut and should be a negative. But, like I’ve already said, the RBA is on hold for a good while to come.
Overall, I reckon any dip in the AUD will be bought today and any move higher might have a better chance of being sustained in coming hours. Just like the RBA, though, data dependent, of course.
