Well done to you pollsters who picked 1.6700 on last night’s poll

| 31 Comments

My “Where will the pound go on the jobs and inflation report?” poll was evenly matched all the way through.

Out of 223 votes, 111 went for 1.6700 and 112 chose 1.6900. We printed 1.6700 on Bloomers so I declare the sellers the winners. Give yourselves a pat on the back.

The big question is though, how many of you traded that way?

Author: Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone has been working in financial markets for more than 20 years. Wide-eyed, he stepped out of Bank station in London to join LME founding member Rudolf Wolff where he worked his way to the main order desk and brokered customer orders to the LME floor and across virtually every global market. An opportunity to help set up and run a new LIFFE floor operation saw him catch the trading bug and it wasn’t long before the pull of the pits was too great to refuse. He became a ‘local’ and has been trading his own account for more than 10 years.

31 Comments

  1. Hi Ryan, didnt trade on it but have used it to begin scaling into GBP longs

  2. I had the pleasure to short my beloved GBP/NZD around 1.9950. Thank you Mr. Carney.

  3. I had a Long order at 1.6700 and a take-profit at 1.6725.

  4. @Joe Kight – good job, I had similar success on GBPCAD, still holding it.
    As I’m saying since Monday – unless 1.67 is not broken with weekly close – the uptrend in GBPUSD is intact. I have open a small BUY position at 1.6699, will leave it running until 1.71.

  5. Very nice Thibault, well done.

  6. i was long before the move. i jammed my stop with a take profit.stop got hit and now on the side lines with a small profit :)

  7. Well played JR

  8. My bot started selling down on my long position off the back of yesterday’s wee rise (thankfully) – Cable seems to be the sucker punch that just keeps taking atm. I’m sure the instos are loving this ;)

  9. A little confused… I’m running a 215 pip profit and there’s no “well played” or “very nice” for this little trader?! *Smiles* to Ryan Littlestone

  10. Cotton wool and cup of cocoa for Joe..

  11. Sorry Joe, I must have missed your comment. You can have a “very well played”. How’s that? :-D

  12. Joe, that’s one hell-of-a trade. jam your stop and call it a week! how long have you been in that trade?

  13. my 1.716 shorts were covered at 1.69. A wee bit premature :P

    but anyway, the move was so slow it just took space from intraday position size…

    voted 1.69. Traded 1.67064 to 1.67272. Tryin’ another long now from 93, but… don’t like it. Might close for 5-7 odd pips profit.

    tryin’ since yesterday an e/j short. Barely saved the position… Anyway, I guess they’ll keep cable in very tight range, so not much scalping to be done.

  14. i had shorted it since 171, but i can’t/don’t trade the GBP , here is the oh so wonderful usa (sarcasim), we get a set of special regulations we are forced to abide to. The margin rate for trading the pound is double that of the other crosses, so i rarely trade it since i can trade the Yen crosses, the margin is half of the pound, and the aud and nzd is ok as well except the roll over rates are insane, so those are strictly short term trades, and you need to be out before everything rolls over. But i had jump in there a little and had done well shorting it.

  15. honestly, the margin rate is a good rule. Same for the leverage rule.

    getting – the least leverage you get in cable – a 30x or so leverage… should be more than enough for anyone.

    While I admit it’s not govt. business if you want to blow off your acct.(even funnier in my case, where I’m not even an US citizen, just a guy using a US broker), the rule ain’t half bad.

  16. That’s shocking George. Is that all brokers who do that and what’s the reason?

  17. All in good fun, Ryan.

    I entered this trade at 1:45 am central time USA last night and then went to bed. Woke up this morning to see that the desired and hoped-for outcome/reaction had occurred. I just booked for 200+ pips. Considered keeping it running, but in the face of such success, it’s never wrong to just make a deposit.

    I have commented often about the volatility of GBP/NZD and that I find it an attractive opportunity. When that pair moves, it can zoom! So tight stops and ambitious targets can work. In today’s case, it worked perfectly.

    My trading has developed for some years. I use a “zero stop” to protect from losses. I look for value and good prices. I place myself at historical levels when possible. I do not add to losing trades to try to rush the exit, nor do I reduce trade size on successful positions. I work hard to minimize losses and maximize gains.

    I’ve had a very good year so far. The commitments I’ve made to my style of trading, to the protocols of trading that guide me, they’ve worked so far. It’s when I veer from them (I haven’t) that things go sour. So I’ve been incentivized to continue the methods. Frankly, I think HOW one trades is as significant to success as which pairs and what prices. It’s less magical to me than it was for the first (too many) years. The mechanics of trading make a big difference.

    Thanks for allowing and enabling a place to write about this sort of thing. My friends don’t get into it. And here at ForexLive, I can read, learn, and share my experiences. It means a lot to my success. And a particular compliment to Ryan Littlestone, whose insight in these markets I find to be remarkably keen.

  18. at least in my case, the rule is to have 2% margin.

    say, you short a lot of cable, that’s shorting 167k USD. While on paper your max. leverage is 50, since you short cable, means selling 100k cable(167k usd at current rate)… your max leverage is 50/1.67 – ~33.

    Otoh, when you short nzd/usd, your max leverage is 50/0.84, so ~58.

    you just have to calculate abit your position size, but that can be easily done in an excel… And anyway, it’s good to calculate position size all the time; especially intra day trading.

    plus, I guess if you don’t like, you can just open with an UK broker or somethin’. Most of the US brokers saw that offer uk accts. too, to skip this rule. At least my guys were all over me about 2 years ago with “look, you can get 100x leverage”(like I’m mother Theresa and I have nothing better to do than to make them money…)

  19. Still vlad, it seems a bit excessive to have a bigger margin on cable than the yen cross which is far more volatile

  20. Thanks for the compliment Joe. There’s no greater feeling when you get into a groove. As you say, the hard work is how you deal with the wobbles that come along.
    You’re a poster boy for discipline :-)

  21. I do not know the reason, i use fxcm, the leverage for the gbp is 26:1 and the yen is 50:1 ……. the swap rate for the nzd/usd today for a short is -3.57….. it’s not realistic to short the kiwi, though i want to, which leads me to another question. As a us citizen i am forbidden from using foreign brokers, so after learning ( a few hard knocks as anyone could relate) yes we are slaves in this country…… So I could use a few suggestions on chosing a foreign broker, as i’m moving to HK soon. here is a bigger question, hypothetically, if a person wanted to open an account in the 6 figure range, what kind of broker sould he use??

  22. I did not post Ryan on the poll but I posted the analysis to 1.6655 so that makes an even 112 to 112 :)

    Mentioned it already that trading is a 50% chance in getting rich or …..not :)

  23. A good one George ;-)
    In all seriousness I’d look at the bigger institutions like the banks rather than the main retail brokers for that sum.
    Quick question though, why would you want to put so much into an account? One of the benefits of using leverage (and using it properly) is that you can avoid putting larger sums into an account. Keep it in your own bank and use the leverage to trade the size you want. Lessens any risks of firms blowing up.
    I don’t know the lay of the land in HK these days but make sure you research. Speak to the big boys like HSBC etc.

  24. I 50% agree with you BBJ ;-)

  25. So you inspired me to check my numbers. Since 1 January, I’ve initiated 21 trades. Of those, 12 ended at nothing, zero, no loss no gain. Four generated a loss. Five generated a gain. For the year, I’m up 28%. Used to be, I’d not be satisfied with that. I’d be looking with starry eyes at the trade reports of these crazy-successful traders and compare myself unfavorably to them. I’d make the mistakes that make for big losses.

    Since, however, I’ve come to manage my expectations. There’s nothing! wrong with 28% increase!

    Yes, I stomach many trades ending with zero. But it’s my version of protection. The losses were small and the gains were ample. For me, it’s working. So I’m sticking with it.

    Thanks for your encouragement, Ryan.

  26. And long may it continue Joe

  27. hi ryan, if you have the time maybe you could email me directly with a few suggestions. I am not from a finanical background, so i know little about setting up an account with a bank, other than i spend too much. It has taken me 2 years, trading, one step forward,, one step back, but finally i am producing consistant results, given the parameters i have to endure here is the states, nothing more than i would like is to trade with a 200:1 leverage, with no FIFO, have all my trade listed seperately so i can hedge my trades. you all have no idea the difficultly associated with trading in the states.

  28. hi ryan … i had actually inquired with the East Bank of Asia and DBS bank of hk. I have much to learn if i want to run with the big boys. thanks for your input

  29. I’ll see what I can dig up George, but it’s been a while since I was in the City so I’m not sure who is doing what and how. Speaking about the UK, most of the banks have/had retail operations and trading systems. A lot will depend on what category you fall into, i.e private or professional trader. That will affect the level of protection your account has (segregated/non-seg etc). As I say though, I’ve been out that side of things for a while so don’t really know the lay of the land anymore. For a start, head over to Trade2win.com forums and have a poke around there. They have extensive broker knowledge on there and if you ask the question I’m sure you’ll get a proper response.

  30. thanks ryan… i really appreciate the info. The last time I’ve done any poking around was in Wan Chai, so if you see some pathetic middle age american drinking a pepsi and charlie sheen’ing the girls…. forget i mentioned that… .
    All kidding aside, i work every hard at this and have for several years, and currently for the last several months i have been averaging 30% increases per week.. thanks for the great website

  31. Sorry I couldn’t help further George, but I’ll ask around a few of my mates in the City and see what that yields.

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