They say the failure of the pound to rally after the minutes this week is based on the debate whether rates go up in 2014 and 2015. In contrast, they say, the market is still more expectant of a continued dovish FOMC so even a minor change in language will have more of an impact.
“Today, for example, the overwhelming consensus is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be dovish when she addresses the Jackson Hole conference,” they say
One important point they raise is that there’s not been much real discussion on whether UK rates might be held until after next years general election in May. That’s something that may start to be factored in when the parties start up on the campaign trails.
Whatever the outcome between now and when rates do go up, it’s going to be tough to stop the hawks
Ain’t no stoppin these mofo’s
