July trade balance, -692m

  • expected -475m, prior was +247 m
  • Trade deficit in July of 19% of exports compared with average surplus of 5.2% of exports over the previous five July months

July exports, 3.70bn

  • expected is 3.98bn, prior was 4.20bn
  • down $125 million (3.3 percent) compared with July 2013
  • -7.5% y/y
  • Monthly exports fall for first time since August 2013
  • Seasonally adjusted exports fell 7.5 percent in July 2014 compared with June 2014
  • Exports to China down 5.4%
  • Exports to Australia down 7.1%

July imports, 4.40bn

  • expected 4.48bn, prior was 3.95bn
  • Seasonally adjusted imports fell 1.8 percent in July 2014.

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  • Over the last 10 months, milk powder, butter, and cheese values rose between 34 and 84 percent when compared with same month in the previous year. This drove the large increase in total goods exports over that time.
  • In July 2014, the small rise in milk powder, butter, and cheese exports (up 0.9 percent) was offset by larger falls in other commodities.

Statistics New Zealand international statistics manager Jason Attewel:

  • “Goods exports decreased over a range of commodities, but the fall was led by pine logs”
  • “This is the first fall in exports after 10 months of rises”

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The NZD had drifted lower going into the data release and is barely off its lows after.