The main economic data point in the day ahead is the US durable goods orders report at 1230 GMT and it could be shocking.
There is extreme variance in economist estimates because of a surge in Boeing orders in July. The aircraft manufacturer took a record 324 orders in the month and that has estimates for durable goods orders as high as 38.1%. That would easily beat the all-time record of +16.6% for this series but beware that any gain will almost certainly unwind a month later (the worst ever report of -13.9% came a month after the best-ever record).
The numbers are seasonally adjusted so some of the strength could also be stripped out. The consensus is 8.0% but one estimates is at just 0.5%.
When the headlines hit it could raise eyebrows and even spark a kneejerk in markets but most traders will look to the line on capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft for a clearer gauge of underlying economic demand. It’s expected up 0.2%.
Durable goods orders – time for another spike?
