A no-nonsense preview of non-farm payrolls for September 5, 2014 that sticks to the numbers:
Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1230 GMT):
- Median estimate 230K (215K private)
- July reading: 288K (best since April)
- High est 300K (Landesbank)
- Low est 190K (First Trust)
- Avg of estimates made after ADP/ISM-non: 224K
- Standard deviation: 21K
- NFP 6-month avg 244K
- Unemployment rate est. at 6.1% vs 6.2% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.9%
- ADP 204K vs 212K prior (220K exp)
- ISM August manufacturing employment 57.1 vs 56.0 prior (highest since 2006)
- ISM August non-manufacturing employment: 58.1 vs 58.2 prior
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 30.6 vs 30.9 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 300K vs 299K at the time of the July jobs report
- Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine showed demand for jobs up 164.4K
- Aug Challenger job cuts: -20.7% y/y
- June JOLTS job openings: 4671K vs 4635K prior
The final two pieces of the puzzle were Thursday’s ADP data and the ISM non-manufacturing employment component but they pointed in opposite directions. The past 6 months of +200K payroll growth is one of the stronger periods on record.
Non farm payrolls historical chart 2010-Sept 2014
Ultimately, the past two months of economic data has been stronger than any period since the crisis and a soft non-farm payrolls report would change nothing except to provide a dip for US dollar buyers. If the data is strong, it will almost certainly cause the Fed to shift rhetoric and hint at sooner rate hikes — something that appears more overdue each day.
