Due at 0130GMT – Australian employment data for August (prior is here)

  • Employment Change: expected +15.0K, prior -0.3K
  • Unemployment Rate: expected 6.3%, prior 6.4%
  • Full Time Employment Change, prior was +14.5K
  • Part Time Employment Change, prior was -14.8K
  • Participation Rate XXX, expected is 64.8%, prior was 64.8%

–

  • Last month’s jump in unemployment to 6.4% has brought this data release today into sharp focus
  • The question is if the jump to 6.4% was a blip or a trend move?
  • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Stevens said on the data that it was ‘on face value’ of concern, but is still of the view that unemployment will decline in time
  • Stevens has also said the RBA would like to using monetary policy to bring unemployment down faster, but is constrained by the risk of further inflating house prices (“While we nay desire to see a faster reduction in the sate of unemployment, further inflating an already elevated level of housing prices seems an unwise route to try to achieve that”)

Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk:

  • Says it is hard to argue that none of the rise in participation in July was due to the ABS’s changes, and “As such, some of the lift in participation is likely to be structural and so we should not be looking for a full correction in August. However, we also note that there were inconsistencies across the survey, which suggests there is more going on”
  • Smirk forecasts +15,000 jobs, unchanged participation rate, a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.3%.

Barclays’ Kieran Davies:

  • Says the jump in unemployment rate in July was overstated
  • Is forecasting a fall to 6.2% but not a “complete unwind” given the changes made by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
  • Expecting +25,000 j added obs in August

Standard Chattered:

  • Expect a rise of 25,000 jobs
  • See unemployment steady at 6.4%
  • Due to a rise in the participation rate to 64.9%