Yeah, that was nuts.
- Australia data – Employment Change: +121,000 (expected +15.0K, prior -0.3K)
- Australia data – Unemployment Rate: 6.1% (expected 6.3%, prior 6.4%)
- Australia data – Full Time Employment Change, +14,300 (prior was +14.5K)
- Australia data – Part Time Employment Change, +106,700 (prior was -14.8K)
- Australia data – Participation Rate 65.2% (expected is 64.8%, prior was 64.8%)
Check the underlined … +121,000 vs. +15,000 expected.
Some of the Twitter reactions … (via the Sydney Morning Herald, I didn’t see all these myself):
- Govt on track for a million new jobs by next Tuesday.
— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) September 11, 2014 - Volatility in ABS employment data a bit of an embarrassment.. but must be some positive signal from such a loud noise.
— David Bassanese (@DavidBassanese) September 11, 2014 - The net change in Australian employment is the largest ever in the history of the LFS #ausbiz #auspol #rubbery
— David Scutt (@David_Scutt) September 11, 2014 - You are kidding me ABS – how can I believe that number ??? +121K talks about statistical noise
— Greg McKenna (@gregorymckenna) September 11, 2014 - No surprise there .. jobless rate falls to 6.1% in Sept from 6.4%. Very dodgy claim that 121K jobs created in Sept…
— Shane Wright (@swrightwestoz) September 11, 2014 - Yep, last month’s unemployment rate was a rogue number, as generally understood. That didn’t stop the scary headlines though.
— Michael Pascoe (@MichaelPascoe01) September 11, 2014
—
How to figure this out?
Well, last month the unemployment rate jumped to a huge (for Australia) 6.4%
This month job creation jumped to the largest ever at +121,000
OK, treat both as noise.
Unemployment rate … its not as bad as it looks.
Job creation … its not as good as it looks.
I’ll be back with more.
–
From the Australian Bureau of Statistics (via Bloomberg)
The statistics bureau said today that the increase in part-time employment was driven by factors including a change in the survey group. “The incoming rotation group reported a higher proportion of part-time employed persons than the rotation group it replaced, and contributed 47,000 to the increase in part-time employment,” the bureau said.
–
Here is a statement direct from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (bolding and underlining mine):
- The ABS is aware that the seasonally adjusted increase in employment in August 2014, particularly part-time employment, was unusually strong and, as a result, has extensively validated the questionnaire, processes and systems associated with the estimates. Further details are included in the publication.
- The ABS encourages the use of the trend series which smooths the seasonally adjusted series and can provide a better basis for analysing the underlying behaviour of the series.
OK, so taking their advice … here’s what the ‘trend’ looks like:
