Courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com
Goldman: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): 230K; US Unemployment Rate (Sep): 6.0%
Morgan Stanley: 230k; 6.1%
DB: 200k; 6.0%
SEB: 213k; 6.1%
BofA: 235k with possible upward revisions to prior months. Job growth was disappointing in August, only increasing 142,000, notablybelow the recent trend. There has been a pattern of upward revisions to the jobs report in August, averaging about 30,000. We forecast the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.1% in September.
Barclays: 250k and a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate, to 6.0%.
RBS: 215k consistent with the underlying trend prior to the August disappointment. And we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 6.1%. Our strategists also point out in their preview that the August NFP has been revised up in 12 of the past 14 Septembers by an average of 43.
Danske: 250k.There are two reasons why we continue to look forpayroll growth around 250k. First, our model for payrolls comprising a range oflabour market indicators points to job growth of 250-260k. Second, there is going tobe some technical payback from very weak service employment in August, which waspartly related to strike activity. We look for an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.1%in line with consensus. Wage increases have remained subdued around 2% but weexpect to see a gradual increase soon as the labour market is gradually tightening.
Credit Agricole: 215k with the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.1%. We believe the soft +142K print in August reflected transitory factors that lowered reported payrolls in the motor vehicle sector (retooling) and retail trade (food store work dispute)
Credit Suisse: 215k rise in payrolls, in line with consensus. Our unemployment rate projection is for a tick down to 6.0%; consensus is for the rate to hold steady. On the wage front, we expect a +0.2% m/m gain in average hourly earnings (in line with consensus), which would push the year-on-year rate to 2.2% from 2.1%
Citi: 175k, but UR surprise at 6.0% could be bigger USD driver. In isolation NFP over/under is 200/230, but investors increasingly looking at wages and UR. We would judge UR down 0.1% is worth 20-25k in market terms and earning surprising up 0.1% about the same.
BNPP: Concerns about the possibility of a second consecutive weak report may have been a factor driving short covering in Treasury markets over the past few days and keeping the USD defensive. If this is the case, then numbers in line with our 215k forecast for payrolls should be reassuring for USD bulls and allow for USD recovery.
SocGen: The market looks for 2.2% wage growth, 6.1% unemployment, 215k NFP and a dip in the non-manufacturing ISM to 58.5. The risk is of a stronger payroll gain, though as ever it’s a lottery and barring a huge surprise it will still leave y/y employment growth just below 2%, strong enough to underpin GDP growth heading into Q4. And that is what keeps the bear flattening bias in place in the US rate market, and the pressure on asset markets globally.
