The data is here: Australia – September employment data

I’ll update this post as more come in, but these’ll get us started.

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital:

  • Aside from the statistical problems, the ‘basic picture’ is modest jobs growth, up 1.1% y/y (but he says that may be exaggerated) and a gradual rise in unemployment
  • Says the RBA will focus on the trend jobs and unemployment data, and it is consistent with their view of the labour market and rates remaining on hold at 2.5%
  • And that the good news is that forward looking jobs indicators (ANZ job ads, NAB hiring plans) point to stronger jobs growth at some point ahead

Speaking of ANZ … Here is their quick take on it (bolding is mine):

  • At face value today’s data suggest that labour market conditions have stabilised in recent months (the unemployment rate has been more or less at 6.0 per cent for 5 months now)
  • However it is important to note that these figures will be revised next month, with today’s preliminary figures based on a ‘stop-gap’ methodology until the ABS can determine what the new appropriate seasonal pattern is”
  • That said, a stable unemployment rate is more in line with other indicators of the labour market(instead of the spike higher to 6.4 per cent that was originally published)”
  • More weighting should be placed on other indicators of the labour market at the moment – ANZ job ads have been gradually improving for some time now, and there has been a more pronounced improvement in measured business profitability and capacity utilisation, all of which have been reliable indicators of employment growth and the unemployment rate in the past. Indeed almost all of the other key labour market ‘cross checks’ we look at have also shown some improvement
  • We will need some more months of official statistics to garner what they mean for actual labour market conditions. This will also complicate the monetary policy decision making process in coming months, particularly given the RBA’s reticence in the past to tighten monetary policy settings until the unemployment rate has at least stabilised

Westpac:

  • It is still not clear what the underlying trend in the labour market is
  • With the revised data the ABS is now reporting that the unemployment rate has held at around 6.0% so far this year, which is a positive sign. But with the revisions they have also confirmed that this is, in part, due to an ongoing trend decline in participation, particularly for males. This suggests that the more positive than expected outcome from unemployment is due as much to people exiting from the workforce than it is to a more positive labour market environment.
  • The annual pace of employment growth down to 1.1%yr (121.9k in the year) from 1.4%yr (156.4k in the year) in Aug. This feels a little soft compared to the other labour market indicators but we do accept that it is broadly in line with the normal volatility in this survey… As such, if the business surveys are correct then we should be looking for a positive bounce next month.
  • The 0.9%mth decline in hours worked which are now running at a –0.3%yr annual pace, quite a bit softer than recent history and the over growth in total employment.

Macquarie:

  • Says seasonally adjusted hours worked have fallen 2.1% over past the past 3 months – are 0.3% lower than year ago. This trend in hours worked suggest period of weakness in labor market
  • Australia’s employment data show a deterioration in labor demand in domestic economy
  • Sustained declines in the unemployment rate and above-trend growth in gross domestic income are both necessary before RBA begins normalizing policy