The EURUSD is lower today and has been trading around the lows from 2013. Remember those lows came in at 1.2746 and 1.2757 respectively. The 50% of the move up from yesterday comes in at the 1.27526.The current price is trading around these levels.
The hourly chart is showing support buyers on the first test of the 100 hour MA. Watching for the high from last week to hold.
The initial claims were much better than expectations. The 4 week moving average of 283.5 is the lowest since June 2000. That is pretty good. The Dow in pre-market is still down 192 and the S&P is down -25 points. Let’s see if that trend starts to turn on the much better than expected data, and the focus that the US is “relatively better”. It might need a stronger stock market first, however. A 10% decline from the top in the S&P comes in at 1817 area. The low yesterday came in at 1820.66. The S&P in pre market is trading down -26 from the close at 1862.
If the price is to go down, I will need to see the price head back below the 1.2746 level. From there the 100 hour MA should be tested again. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the pair just tested the midpoint of the days trading range (at 1.27738). This might be a level to lean against in trading this morning. I would not want to see a move above the high from last week at 1.2791 no matter what today. It would suggest something else is up (like stocks getting creamed and shorts covering).
The EURUSD is testing midpoint of the days range.
Risks remain elevated, but I liked the Claims data. There is other data in Industrial Production and Philly Fed. We will need the stock market to believe it. Don’t overleverage (I will continue to remind you….).
