The headlines were out earlier on Citigroup forecasting continued falls in the price of iron ore, but more via Bloomberg, with views from Goldman Sachs, Macqaurie, ANZ …
Citigroup:
- Iron ore prices will plummet to less than $60 a metric ton next year
- Due to global supply increases (Brazil’s Vale and rivals BHP Billiton & Rio Tinto are cranking up the diggers!) & demand remains weak (China slowed and seems the roubound, if any, is weak)
- Cut its quarterly forecasts for 2015 by as much as 23%
- Will average $72 a ton in the first three months of 2015 (prior forecast of $82)
- Q2 2015 forecast cut to $65 from $80
- Q3 2015 to $60 from $78
- Q4 2015 to $62 from $78
- Full-year forecast for 2015 $65 a ton from $80
ANZ:
- The global surplus will more than double next year
- ANZ has reduced its price forecasts through 2017
Goldman’s:
- Declared in September the “end of the Iron Age” (Chinese-led demand surge over the past decade has ended)
Macquarie:
- September report said the market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history
- As supply jumps and higher-cost mines shut