The EURUSD is trading in a confined range today. On the topside, the 1.2500 level was the low from October 3rd and the market seems to be using that level to lean against on rallies over the last few trading days. On the downside the 100 hour MA and the low from November 3rd at the 1.2438 level are acting as support (the low today reached 1.2430 but quickly rebounded). A move below this level (and staying below) will signal a shift to the downside for the pair. The 200 hour MA is at 1.2474. The price has been above and below this MA today (and yesterday) as the market consolidates between support (100 hour MA) and resistance (1.2500) before deciding on the next move.
With the range for the day at 68 pips, there is room to roam either below or above today. There are rumblings about Russian troops entering Ukraine. The rumors have been denied by Russia, but….
I would think that the EURUSD might not benefit from such action (not getting any closer to taking off sanctions which hurts EU economies) but the action is contained (and there is some uncertainty still). Also, there may be flow of funds into the safe havens like the JPY and the CHF (The EURCHF moves back below the 1.2020 level – at 1.20186 bid currently). There is chatter that the EURCHF has significant bids at the 1.2000 level but the market continues to be nervous for a quick move on a break as stops are triggered.
PS Draghi speaks in Rome. NO headlines as of yet.
EURUSD trades in a confined range below the 1.2500 level but mostly above the 100 hour MA
