50% now think that the ECB will start on an asset purchase program. That’s up from 40% in September.

  • EZ GDP to average 0.7% 2014 (0.8% prior), 1.1% 2015 (1.2% prior)
  • Inflation 0.5% 2014 (unch), 0.9% 2015 (1.0% prior, 1.4% 2016 (unch)

On the US, 24/43 see the Fed raising rates in June 2015, 7 see an earlier rise, 111 thnik Sep or later.

21/38 see bond market underpricing a Fed move