Forex headlines for Nov 26, 2014:
- US core durable goods orders -1.3% vs +1.0% exp
- ECB sources: Sovereign QE decision in Q1 2015 largely agreed
- October 2014 US personal income 0.2% vs 0.4% exp m/m
- Core PCE 0.2% vs 0.2% ex
- October 2014 US pending home sales -1.1% vs 0.5% exp m/m
- US initial jobless claims 313k vs 288k exp
- US Nov Chicago PMI 60.8 vs 63.0 expected
- US Oct new home sales 458K vs 471K exp
- November 2014 University of Michigan consumer sentiment final 88.8 vs 90 exp
- US DOE crude oil inventories +1946K vs +220K expected
- US MBA mortgage market index 374.5 vs 391.3 prior
- Spain’s de Guindos says there is no deflation in Spain
- Poll sees only 50/50 chance of ECB quantitative easing
- Mr Yen says the USD/JPY rally has nearly run its course
OPEC
- Iran won’t ask the Saudis for oil production cuts
- Oil falls after Iran hints at monitoring, not action
- Three OPEC delegates say unlikely to cut output on Thursday – RTRS
- What time is the OPEC decision?
Markets
- Gold down $3 to $1198
- WTI crude down 37-cents to $73.72
- US 10 year yields down 1.6 bps to one month low of 2.24%
- S&P 500 up 3 points to 2070
- NZD leads, USD lags
We’ve noted the recent inability of the US dollar to rally on good news but today it was a different story. US economic data was soft but the US dollar didn’t slide, or at least not particularly far.
Durable goods orders numbers were poor and they were joined by a handful of weak indicators from elsewhere but US dollar weakness was mild, falling by at most 25-30 pips.
USD/JPY finish US trading about where it started after some losses in Europe and Asia. The pair slide down to 117.44 on the dip but slowly dug itself out of the hole and climbed to 117.73.
EUR/USD started US trading nearly flat after erasing a dip in European trading. The upward momentum continued after the data as 1.2500 fell on the way to a spike to 1.2532. That was a bit too much for this market and the pair slipped back to 1.2508.
Cable remained impressively bid throughout trading, even making a fresh high late in the day at 1.5806. The lows were higher throughout the day and we’re finishing near the highs — all good signs.
The commodity currencies have also been bid late in the day despite a warning about Chinese growth from Deere & Co. USD/CAD slid to 1.1234 from 1.1260 despite pressure on oil. The Aussie also erased a large dip below 0.8500 and finishes higher on the day at 0.8552.
For WTI oil, the $73.25 low from earlier in November was challenged but it held ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC decision.
