Here’s what the movers and shakers think is going to happen at ECB HQ later today;

  • Citi – Nowt this month, QE decision at the Jan meeting
  • Goldman Sachs – Just talk that QE is an ongoing discussion, will announce QE 1st half of 2015
  • RBC – Nothing this month as ECB waits for TLTRO results
  • Barclays – No announcement on further easing, ECB will wait at least another month
  • UBS – No new measures or guidance unveiled today, think March is the likely date
  • Rabo – March 2015 will be likely QE announcement date
  • BNP – Sees Draghi announcing broadening of ECB asset purchases
  • Jefferies – 15% chance of Draghi giving QE specifics, 15% announcing in Q1 2015, 70% chance of continued dovish message but with no firm commitments to act
  • Credit Suisse – Explicit announcement on ECB undertaking large scale asset buying will be made today
  • BAML – Data not negative enough to prompt a move today. Expects announcement by March 5th latest, with chances rising for a move at Jan meeting

Eamonn had the WSJ’s “5 things to watch in the ECB meeting”

A mixed bag of what we’re likely to get today and the price speaks for itself that the market is erring on the side of hearing something further on QE, with sov QE being the jackpot prize.