We got the November Chinese trade data yesterday: China trade balance for November: $54.5bn (expected +$43.95bn)
A sorry set of data it was, too … with imports and exports both below expectations, renewed talk of the impact of fake invoicing, and chatter once again of further Chinese rate/RRR cuts.
I had a look at economist comments yestereday, but here is a bit of a further catch-up now on some economist reactions. In (very) brief:
- Fan Zhang, CIMB – We continue to believe that external demand will recover
- Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics – Falling commodity prices, which will have weighed on the value of commodity imports, are almost certainly to blame
- Changchun Hua et al, Nomura – These data suggest that the weakening of imports reflected both softer domestic demand as well as the sharp drop in the prices of oil and other commodities
- Louis Kuijs, RBS – China export data confirm that the momentum of global trade remains weak
There is more detail on these comments, here (Wall Street Journal, ungated): Economists React: China’s Trade Weakens in November
