OK, first to the data from a few minutes ago:
National Australia Bank business confidence for November, 1
- prior was 5, revised from 4
National Australia Bank business conditions for November, 5
- prior was 13
Link to the post with more is here
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In response (to this and of course to other developments): NAB changes call on Australian interest rates, sees two cuts of 25 bps in March and August
And again, more at that link
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NAB FX analysts now on the AUD:
- Expecting $0.78 by end-2015,
- AUD then bottoming out at $0.75 by late 2016
Cites
- A deteriorating terms of trade outlook
- View that the RBA will cut rates in 2015, are the key drivers of this revision
- AUD/USD “will need to do the hard yards to get the A$ TWI down, as the crosses remain supported.
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Note – Did everyone see the AUD/USD fall before the release of the NAB data and subsequent change to their RBA call and forecast on the currency?
Note that NAB spend a lot of money on research, privately conducted research, and analysis. It should come as no surprise that they seek to benefit from their own, privately funded research efforts.
