The EURUSD is trading quietly in a narrow trading range today. The price is higher on the day, and making new day highs. The 1.2439 is topside trend line resistance.
The pair yesterday extend higher and tested topside trend line resistance. The trading day today has seen the price trade above and below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). At the lows (both yesterday afternoon and again today), the price could not extend below the 1.2357-59 lows from November. This was the level that I have had earmarked as needing to get below for the sellers to show their might and control. It came close on 3 or so occasions, but no cigar. See post from yesterday: Forex Technical Trading: EURUSD back down to a break level at the 200 hour MA
My sentiments from yesterday where I commented that I did not love the long side, remain in place. I don’t see how Greece is good, potential lower stocks are good. Add that 2nd leg of the TLTRO program tomorrow which if a problem would be a sign that there is no loan demand. One has to wonder why the EURUSD is moving higher? However, it is, so am more neutral now. If the price were to move toward the 1.2439 topside trend line, it will be worth a patient sell.
For you longs out there, stay above the 200 hour MA and those November lows at 1.2357-59 can define your risk. You too want to see what happens on a test of the 1.2439 level. That is the next key target in this quiet trading day. PS. Stocks not so quiet. Dow down -122, S&P down -13 and Nasdaq down around -20.
