Bloomberg have the scoop on what JPMorgan are looking for from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year …

  • JPM says they see the RBNZ raising rates 50 basis points this year
  • Say the official cash rate is now close to neutral

JPM add:

  • Tradables prices are weak
  • Overall inflation is benign
  • It will require robust activity & housing data to justify resumption of the hiking cycle
  • Currently see above-trend GDP growth to continue in 2015, at 2.9%

Also:

  • If there are portfolio shifts as the Federal Reserve hikes that push the New Zealand dollar lower, this would allow NZ rates to rise more than JPMorgan currently expects

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Bloomberg citing a JP Morgan client note

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ADDED: BNZ economists have pushed back expectations of an official cash rate hike until March 2016, with deflation looming as oil prices continue to fall.

h/t to Mungo in the comments, reporting on an opposing view from BNZ