A survey of what economists are expecting from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for this coming year.

In brief …

  • 5 of the 20 economists polled expect the RBA will lower the rate this year
  • 4 of those 5 expect a total of 50bps in two cuts
  • most polled economists say the argument for rate cuts looks weak because a lower exchange rate is expected to result in an easing of monetary conditions. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has in the past indicated he prefers an easing in monetary conditions to come through a lower exchange rate.

Forecasts from the 20 survey participants (19 opinions … one still undecided ….)

NAB

  • 25bps cut each in March and August 2015

Note – I had more from NAB this morning, here: Australian dollar traders – NAB highlights employment data as important to RBA policy

ANZ

  • 25bps rise in November 2015, 3.5% by mid-2016

Westpac

  • 25bps cut each in February and March 2015

CBA

  • 25bps rise in Q1 2016

Citigroup

  • Hold in 2015

JP Morgan

  • Rise in Q4 2015

HSBC

  • Rise in Q4 2015

TD Securities

  • Rise in mid-2015

UBS

  • 50bps rise in 2015 second half

Deutsche Bank

  • 25bps cut each in late Q2 and late Q3/early Q4 2015

AMP

  • 25bps cut in early 2015, 50% chance of another cut in Q2

Moody’s

  • Under Review

Barclays

  • Rise Q3 2015

St George

  • Hold in 2015, Rise in March 2016

Macquarie

  • Rise in February 2016

Nomura

  • Hold until 2015 second half

RBC Capital

  • On Hold for foreseeable future

Goldman Sachs

  • 25bps cut each in March and August 2015

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

  • Rise in Q1 2016

Standard Chartered

  • Rise Q3 2015

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Survey conducted by MNI