Societe Generale survey of 206 investors

  • Found that around 65% of investors expect European Central Bank Sovereign QE
  • “A smaller group looking for QE later or additional waves of Sovereign QE”
  • Most expect the ECB to announce a program of E500bn, “but the distribution is quite right skewed with another peak” at E1000bn (average E652bn, moving average E666bn, Bbg cons E550bn)
  • “A significant minority expects the ECB to cut its main refinancing rate in January or in the following months”
  • “The market believes that peripheral bonds and EUR/USD underprices the odds of easing at the next ECB meeting”
  • Investors generally see $1.10 as “the peak target and expect the ECB is doing the same; another substantial group bets on parity and believes the ECB is doing the same”
  • About 20% of those polled say Greece to leave in the next two years… “The probability of it leaving within one year is 23.9%”