While growth fell back in the fourth quarter we have finished the year in a much stronger place than when we started it. We’ve posted the fastest growth in 7 years which also came amid an H2 slowdown and we’re likely to be the fastest growing major economy for 2014.

There was encouraging signs from other parts of the economy in December that the slump was at an end but the last services data knocked that for 6.

We’re now in a similar position to that at the start of 2013. We had moved off the bottom and needed to cement the recovery. That happened but it ran out of steam halfway through the year. I noted back in December 2013 that we needed to make the next step but with some overseas help. We didn’t get that and the domestic side of the recovery only got us so far. Jobs continued to be added but the lack of wage rises, which are only now tepidly starting to show, meant that domestically we went sideways.

Europe is still a long way off getting out of the quicksand and until they do it’s going to make it hard for us to see decent export growth again this year. If we do see wages start to take off then at worst the economy should maintain an even balance through the year.

Construction was a big driver last last 18 months or so and the slowdown shouldn’t be too much of a worry and I’d expect to see the falls level off early in the year and maybe even start gaining again. I don’t think we’ll see a huge bounce but a more steady trend.

Services can still offer something to the economy and the slump late in the year also came off of a very strong upward move.

My outside bet would be to see manufacturing put in some decent numbers. The sector is a shadow of the industrial machine in the black and white days but we do have still have good industry and it can play a big part in our fortunes.

The general election noise is going to increase and that means uncertainty. Business can slow in the run up and that could mean we don’t have a good first half. It’s probably a bit of bulldog spirit talking but I’m hoping that we actually see the economy gain in this period. Personally I hope the current government stay in place be it the coalition or the Conservatives. It’s probably the only time I can remember when I’ve actually been happy with the progress made by those in charge,and that’s saying something. There’s still a big scary boogeyman hiding under the stairs with regards to debt, but when hasn’t there been?

Inflation isn’t a problem. We wore it above target for over four years and we’ll wear it below target if need be. Our inflation is mainly driven by imported factors like oil and energy prices, of which we can do nothing about. As long as the core remains higher then forget about it.

To summarise. At worst the economy is flat to a little down in the first half, if election fears take over. At best we see some early year enthusiasm bolster the economy. The lower pound and oil prices could give our exporters a nice little pick-me up. If Europe manage to get their act together then we can look East once more for business to increase. It’s still a big question mark though.

Trading wise, I’m still expecting rates to go up this year. There’s still not one comment from the BOE that says they don’t see rates going up. They want them to start rising desperately. I think that might be the pound trade of the year, to catch the market out on expectations. If it wasn’t for the election I’d be loading up cable longs now. Even so I’m still toying with doing it anyway. Short EUR/GBP still looks to have legs as it’s going to be a while before we see any meaningful lift off in Europe but as soon as we do that will likely be the time to get out and sit back to see what develops.

So, the best of British to you all in 2015 and it’s time to dust down some of the old favs