Australian CPI for Q4:
Headline in at +0.2% q/q
- expected 0.3% q/q
- prior was 0.5% q/q
And +1.7% y/y
- expected 1.8% y/y
- prior was 2.3% y/y
–
For the trimmed mean
- Comes in at +0.7% q/q and 2.2% y/y
- expected 0.5% q/q (and 2.2% y/y)
- prior was +0.3% q/q (revised down from 0.4% q/q) (and 2.4% y/y, revised from 2.5% y/y)
For the weighted median
- Comes in at +0.7% q/q and +2.3% y/y
- expected is 0.5% q/q (and 2.2% y/y)
- prior was +0.5%, revised from 0.6% q/q (and 2.6% y/y)
–
AUD/USD marked higher immediately – it’s the jump in the trimmed mean (on the q/q) to well above what was expected that’s the concern here … it will impact on the RBA’s decision next week (February 3) and makes a rate cut at this meeting less likely.
Note, very few analysts are calling for a cut at the February meeting anyway, there are more looking for it to occur in March.
OIS pricing is now at just 13% probability for an RBA cut next week
AUD/USD high I saw was 0.8004, and just under the figure as i update now:
