Australia – ANZ not expecting a cut from the RBA tomorrow, but a shift to an easing bias

From an ANZ client note this morning – they still don’t expect a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow:

Says:

• Opinions split on the need for the RBA to cut rates at its first policy meeting of 2015
• The market is pricing the move as a 50/50
• AUD likely to remain in a tight range over the next 24 hours
• The weaker-than-expected China PMI and the Queensland election result have put the market on the back foot
• At the RBA meeting on Tuesday ANZ expect a shift in rhetoric, but no cut

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Posts from this morning and over the weekend:

• Goldman Sachs says RBA to hold tomorrow
• Australia press – RBA determination to cut interest rates … most likely on Tuesday

• China PMIs fall – manufacturing gauge back in contraction for 1st time in 2 years

• Australia press: Panel predicts RBA on hold in 2015

• Australia press: “Can RBA resist the markets’ call for a cut?”

• Australian politics – State election a stunning blow against PM

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Added – yields are falling in early trade, the 3-yr is at a record low