The EURUSD has rolled over a bit in trading today. The trading range into the NY session was woefully low at around 48 pips. The NY session has taken the price to new lows and a more respectable 87 pip trading range.
EURUSD has rolled to the downside today.
The average trading range over the last 22 days is somewhat distorted at 136 pips (there have been 7 days with ranges over 175 pips). The lowest trading range over the last 22 days is 71 pips. At 88 pips, today is the 5th lowest range over that 22 day period. So it is ok, not great. The door is still open for an extension of the range between now and the end of the day. Sell a rally?
Technically, the price moved back below the 61.8% of the move down from the January 21 high to the January 26 low. That level comes in at the 1.14562. The low from January 16 comes in at 1.14603. If you look at the hourly chart above, the last 6 hours of trading has pretty much been below the 1.14603 level. This gives a little bit more bearish slant in trading today after yesterday’s sharp short covering squeeze.
The 38.2-50% of the trading range today comes between the 1.14312 and 1.14414 levels (see 5 minute chart below). There were a couple of lowsaround the 1.1435 level. If the sellers are to remain in control and we end up extending to the downside, this area will be an area where I would expect sellers to enter for that potential trade. If the moves above this area, all bets are off. I would expect up-and-down activity for the rest of the day.
EURUSD should find sellers in the 1.1431-41 area if the downside move is to continue today.
